China’s carbon emissions may have peaked
If so, it is a significant, symbolic moment
The rapid growth of China’s economy over the past few decades has come at a high environmental cost to the planet. Mountains of coal have been burned to power factories, releasing tens of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Still more has been belched out in the production of vast quantities of steel and cement to feed construction. Last year China released over 12bn tonnes of the gas, accounting for over 30% of the world’s total emissions.
But there are signs that China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are now decreasing. Over the 12-month period which ended in March, emissions were 1% lower than the preceding 12 months, according to analysis published on May 15th by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (crea), a think-tank in Finland. The news has prompted some cautious celebration among environmentalists. China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are so huge that, if the trend continues and they are shown to have actually peaked, that could alter the trajectory of global emissions. (America’s peaked in 2007, Britain’s in the 1970s.)
China’s emissions have fallen before. In 2022 they dipped after the country’s strict covid-19 controls strangled economic activity. But when factories restarted production, they shot back up again. This time, China’s factories are humming away even as emissions are falling.
That is because they are becoming less reliant on burning fossil fuels for power. Coal is still the mainstay of China’s grid. But the country has also been installing more clean energy than the rest of the world put together. About half of the nuclear power stations under construction worldwide are in China. Last year the country installed 79 gigawatts (gw) of wind power on top of an existing 440gw (for comparison, the entire power capacity of Britain, from all forms of generation, is about 100gw).
Solar power is being installed at a particularly blistering pace. A record 277gw of capacity was plugged into the grid during 2024 alone, on top of an existing 600gw. (America’s total solar capacity is around 240gw.) The speed of additions has only accelerated in 2025. Deserts and hillsides across the country are being blanketed with dark silicon panels. All this has allowed clean-power production to outpace growth in demand.
A few things could still push China’s emissions up again. One is the weather. If it gets too hot and dry, then reservoirs will run low and hydropower, which supplies about a tenth of China’s power, could falter. At the same time, demand for electricity would spike as people turn up their air conditioners to full blast.
To make up the difference, officials would probably end up burning more coal. They will want to avoid a repeat of 2022, which saw power cuts in southern China. And this summer is shaping up to be another hot one. Crops across northern China are already wilting. The National Energy Administration has warned that peak electricity demand could be about 100gw higher than in 2024.
Stalling renewables
Another risk is that the renewable roll-out could start to slow down, even as power demand continues to increase, says Lauri Myllyvirta of crea. China’s power grid was set up around coal. It will require big upgrades to allow all the renewable energy coming online to be transferred over long distances or stored (since it can be generated only when nature co-operates). China also needs reforms to its power market to make sure clean power is efficiently dispatched to regions where it is needed. The coal lobby, a powerful political force, is trying to delay the reforms.
After years of breakneck expansion, China’s renewables industry is also now facing some new uncertainties. At the moment, when companies build a wind or solar farm, they can sell the power it generates to the grid at a guaranteed rate. But, starting on June 1st, newly built farms will be forced to sell their power at market rates, which will probably be lower. Some solar-panel manufacturers, meanwhile, are struggling to make ends meet amid a glut of production.
Still, the question is no longer about whether China’s emissions will peak. If it has not already happened, it is likely to do so in the next couple of years. Analysts are more concerned about what happens next. China’s emissions do not just have to fall but must do so quickly to avoid undercutting global efforts to combat climate change. China has promised to bring its net emissions to zero, ie, become “carbon neutral”, by 2060. To do that they will have to fall a lot faster than 1% a year. ■